States with Higher Math Scores Tend to Have Lower Violent Crime Rates

Does educational performance relate to public safety? One way to explore the question is to compare statewide academic achievement with violent crime rates.

The chart below compares average 8th-grade mathematics scores from the 2024 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) with 2024 violent crime rates reported for each state.

The relationship is moderately strong. States with higher average NAEP math scores tended to report lower violent crime rates (Pearson correlation r = -0.49).

Several states stand out as notable exceptions. Alaska and New Mexico reported some of the nation’s highest violent crime rates despite differing demographic characteristics. Meanwhile, states such as Maine and New Hampshire combined relatively high math scores with comparatively low violent crime rates.

The pattern is interesting, but it should be interpreted carefully.

A correlation does not demonstrate that improving math achievement would reduce crime. Nor does it imply that crime lowers math scores. Both measures are influenced by numerous factors, including poverty, educational opportunity, family stability, urbanization, demographics, state policies, and economic conditions. This figure simply shows that these statewide characteristics tend to occur together.

Researchers have long observed that educational outcomes are associated with many measures of social well-being. Higher-performing school systems often exist alongside lower poverty rates, stronger labor markets, and healthier populations. Determining which factors drive these relationships requires more sophisticated analyses than a simple state-by-state comparison.

Still, statewide correlations can reveal patterns worth exploring. An association of this magnitude (r = -0.49) suggests that educational performance and violent crime are connected in meaningful ways, even if the underlying causes are complex.

Data Sources

• Education: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), Grade 8 Mathematics, 2024
• Crime: OpenCrime.us, 2024 state violent crime rates (per 100,000 population)